4flow trend monitor

Macroeconomics

The market trends to watch – from labor conditions to supply chain legislation

Labor environment
Regulatory framework
E-commerce logistics
New business models
Collaboration

Monitoring trends in macroeconomics

E-commerce and complex market conditions

E-commerce logistics was ranked as the most timely trend in this edition of the 4flow trend monitor, highlighting the importance of digital sales channels even beyond the initial boom caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. Additionally, the trend regulatory framework became more impactful since our previous trend assessment. The growing importance of these trends reflects the complexity facing global supply chains in a world of quickly changing political and economic conditions.

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Labor environment – in focus

Affected industries: All industries that rely on labor-intensive tasks in production, warehousing and transportation

Affected supply chain segments: Road and rail transportation, warehousing, value-added services

Torn between reality and recognition

Labor shortages, such as the truck driver shortage, have been a topic for years, especially in Europe. Still, the situation has intensified – vacant positions in the supply chain industry have been high, while labor strikes are common among essential workers. Will the industry find its path between cost effectiveness and attracting workers?

Related developments

Labor strikes and shortages

Wage dumping and lack of appreciation for truck drivers in past years have led to tension, resulting in labor strikes. A shortage of 100,000 truck drivers is reported in Germany alone.

Immigration to fill labor gaps

Germany passed a new migration law to attract skilled workers from abroad.

Growth despite shortages

While the EU economy is growing, 75% of EU businesses report they struggle finding skilled personnel. In contrast, although the unemployment rate in Germany rises, the number of open positions declines.

Facets of this trend

Driver shortage and IT personnel shortage
Appreciation of essential workers next to labor strikes
Aging of population in western countries persists in the long run

Getting ahead of the trend

The expected developments of the labor environment urge businesses to readdress their working environments. While New Work initiatives and higher appreciation of workers could attract new workforce, automation and AI can also play a role in reducing the demand for essential workers.

Regulatory framework – in focus

Affected industries: Especially relevant for businesses with global supply chains and international markets

Affected supply chain segments: All supply chain segments

Nudging towards improvement or stifling innovation?

The supply chain industry is greatly affected by regulatory conditions – more so than many others, as supply chain activities often span multiple regions with different laws. Organizations like IATA (International Air Transport Association) govern international transportation with additional regulations. This attention from regulatory authorities can impact operations.